Why You Are Unlucky, and How to Make Luck Fair in Games
I explain how you can be more lucky on a psychological level. As well as how to make luck in games more fair to both players and in competition. And discuss whether luck should have a place in games and where RNG and other random mechanics can be best used in a video game environment.
Research
//Notes Bibliography ect.
https://timdenning.com/why-people-get-lucky/
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Luck is about taking opportunities and being flexible. Fighting to achieve your goals even if your naturally disadvantaged, take the bull by the horns and do some shit. Disadvantages can be used to motivate you further. Being unwilling to get stuck on failure is how to become more lucky. Trusting intuition is how you are able to take advantage of when luck is in your favor.
Optimisms important as shown by quite possibly a strangely unethical test. [image used in video was in the document however sites does not support in text images]
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https://www.pbs.org/newshour/arts/watch-can-you-change-your-luck-an-expert-explains
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Still early in my research but I am concerned that 2 of my sources so far are referencing one guy's study. You will feel luckier if you look at things with a different lens if you seek to improve yourself. A positive outlook and being flexible.
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https://www.examiner-enterprise.com/story/lifestyle/2022/03/17/psychology-luck/9444116002/
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Number three referencing the same researcher. I don’t like this. I might have to seek out more resources explicitly excluding this researcher just to cross reference. Rolling the dice more often on something instead of putting your eggs in one basket. Feel lucky. Just be positive and manifest it, it’s why praying and other things work. You are putting your desires and focusing on them. Then the advice of smile and say yes to opportunities. I first heard the never turn down a chance from tom scott and ever since then I’ve lived by it.
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https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/what-are-the-chances/202107/what-is-luck
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It basically just means blaming yourself. Which on an individual player basis sure. And overall in a competitive game you will control whether you win anywhere from 80-20% of your games but the remaining 20% is just RNG of how good your teammates or the enemy team is. Games need systems to mitigate unintentional luck and intentional luck. I would consider matchmaker unintentional luck.
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https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Real-World/luck.html
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References a few sources, one being the same guy as before. The advice seems to be as skeptical as I am, however saying a positive outlook will always benefit you. Along with being realistic. And it prompted me to remember that the way people read odd is weird. 60% is likely even if it is only slightly higher than a 50/50. A 90% chance is guaranteed when 1/10 of the time you will fail. 1/10 people will have a 90% fail.
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SOOO MANY SOURCES REFER TO ONE MAN. I understand that an expert in the field will be the go to especially one who is public but its bad practice to base your conclusions off of one person. Same shit as others nothing new
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https://divine.ca/en/psychology-of-luck-belief-in-fortune-affects-lives/
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Luck is just as much about perception as well as optimism with the rolling.
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https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/jul/25/psychology-donald-trump-win-luck-superstition
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I added this from a basic google search. I didn't even realize this was referencing trump kekw because the title good showed is the one on the site lol. That's kinda funny ngl. It argues that superstition and things like lucky charms will increase “luck” simply through increasing confidence in risk.
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https://www.popsci.com/luck-real/
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The anecdote at the start made me reflect on a moment I had. It essentially was someone telling me that I was lucky for doing something in a game. The thing is I planned for it and had a backup strat for if it failed but when it didn’t I got a massive boost forward in the game. I wasn’t that lucky. I just set up to be able to capitalize on an opportunity. Luck is about casting a net where eventually you find fish. Which is why I upload weekly to optimize the chance of finding fish while still able to create quality.
Gambler's fallacy in not understanding independence of RNG. People who are on a winning streak are more likely to play it safe while people who are losing might try to chase losses. Making it so the odds of them going overall positive by the third bet is much lower.
Reference studies similar to the ones above but another one for Wiseman because of course it's Wiseman. Reference 4 or 5? Regardless, people who were more “Lucky” were more likely to notice that there was a reward. “Luck” is more like observation to take advantage of any situation.
A different researcher (Thank god) states that going on different routes for example would increase your chance of serendipity (situations where you find yourself benefiting randomly)
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https://oakleafgames.wordpress.com/2014/01/10/game-theory-luck-mitigation/
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Makes the distinction of Random elements and Luck interesting but I’ll let it cook. Giving higher cost to better luck makes it so worse items can be easier or cheaper to use and can help balance. Remove randomness and replace it with pseudo random. I was going to suggest this outside of this article but it is fully correct. Replace a random number being generated at the end for loot with a random set of numbers that have the same weights guaranteeing that an item with a 1% will be seen within the first hundred rolls. This removes the need for “mercy” mechanics in random rolls as it in and of itself is a mercy mechanic.
Rubber banding Randomness punishes lucky or players reward unlucky players to balance the experience.
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Mitigations.com/blogs/the-creative-workshop-game-design-blueprints/balancing-strategy-and-luck-in-game-mechanics
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Different games need more strategy or more luck than others. Mario party only works because it's bullshit. Make how the game functions clear and make it clear what is RNG and what is strategy. The more competitive the game the less luck should be a factor.
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https://www.gamedeveloper.com/design/the-impact-of-luck-on-game-design
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When you factor in RNG into a game people will feel like its unfair even though realistically playing safer a 90% chance to hit still has a 10% chance to hit 1/10 encounters you will fuck up and fail. It's better to play safer. Though giving enemies the chance to crit can kind of be BS. Be transparent about the RNG and show them how close a failure was with an on screen indicator to show how their extra 10% buff helped. More transparency about that information is important.
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https://www.americanscientist.org/article/understanding-the-odds
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For full transparency I am skimming this article. The example at the start is a good show of how humans fuck up math. Though I can’t help but feel like it's strange they chose to gender the gambler and specifically gender as female but potential sexism aside.
The house always wins because the house uses pure math to take an edge. Expected value shows the edge.
Near miss is the same as it being far off as shit that's just how math works.
Explains independents vs dependent random events
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This article is more about reading stats and how to gamble properly. Not particularly useful for more than understanding how odds can be represented.
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The alcohol joke is inspired by two jokes one where scott the woz had a rubbing alcohol covered by his thumb and another where frogger refers to alcohol as the only way to cope with overwatch's balance.